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Fixed Income Investment

In: Business and Management

Submitted By liyimei
Words 1632
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FINC3017 Investments and Portfolio Management
Essay: Market Efficiency and Anomalies

Topic:Stock price momentum: Jegadeesh and Titman (1993)

Momentum anomaly and EMH
Anomaly is a stock return deviation that challenge efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) theorise price momentum anomaly in the stock market for the first time. It contradicted to efficient market hypothesis thereby is widely debated. EMH states that no consistent excess return can be achieved since security prices fully reflect all available information (Fama 1970). Therefore, future prices cannot be predicted through technical analysis of past prices. If the hypothesis is true, passive investment strategy ought to be taken, because it is impossible to get abnormal return by aggressive trading.

However, Jegadeesh and Titman show that stocks performed well over the previous 3 to 12 months tend to continue to perform well over 3 to 12 months holding periods. Buy past winners and short past losers earned statistically significant positive return of averaging 12.01% per year. Predictable price patterns and excess returns contradict the efficient market hypothesis. Investors and fund managers perform actively in pursuing abnormal profits.

Literature review and the reason of anomaly
A large number of literatures illustrate that momentum anomaly exist. Some important literatures are Chan, Jegadeesh and Lakonishok (1996), Conrad and Kaul (1998) and Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999). Lee and Swaminathan (2000) find high past turnover stocks exhibit larger magnitude of momentum but shorter persistence of momentum. Grundy and Martin (2001) study of the US market 1926 – 1995 found that after adjusting for dynamic risks, there are stable momentum profits. However, Carhart (1997), Brooks and Miffre (2007) believe if take transaction costs into account, there will be no persistence…...

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