Free Essay

What Is Your Analysis

In: Computers and Technology

Submitted By dPgns
Words 435
Pages 2
Model Answers for Chapter 4: Evaluating Classification and Predictive
Performance

Answer to 4.3.a:
Leftmost bar:
If we take the 10% "most probable 1’s(frauds)” (as ranked by the model), it will yield 6.5 times as many 1’s (frauds), as would a random selection of 10% of the records. 2nd bar from left:
If we take the second highest decile (10%) of records that are ranked by the model as “the most probable 1’s (frauds ” it will yield 2.7 times as many 1’s
(frauds), as would a random selection of 10 % of the records.

Answer to 4.3.b:
Consider a tax authority that wants to allocate their resources for investigating firms that are most likely to submit fraudulent tax returns. Suppose that there are resources for auditing only 10% of firms. Rather than taking a random sample, they can select the top 10% of firms that are predicted to be most likely to report fraudulently (according to the decile chart). Or, to preserve the principle that anyone might be audited, they can establish differential probabilities for being sampled -- those in the top deciles being much more likely to be audited.
.

Answer to 4.3.c:

Classification Confusion Matrix
Predicted Class
1
(Fraudulent)

Actual Class
1
(Fraudulent)
0
(Non-fraudulent)
Error rate =

0
(Non-fraudulent)

30

58

32

920

n0,1 + n1,0 32 + 58
=
= 0.0865 = 8.65% n 1040

Our classification confusion matrix becomes
Classification Confusion Matrix
Predicted Class
1
(Fraudulent)

Actual Class
1
(Fraudulent)
0
(Non-fraudulent)
Overall misclassification rate =
Accuracy = 1 – Error rate

0
(Non-fraudulent)

0

88

0

952

88
= 0.0846 = 8.46%
1040

We can confirm that the misclassification error is decreased, hence accuracy is increased. Answer to 4.3.d:
The likely purpose of this analysis is to identify fraudulent records. The overall "error rate" is not likely to help much in evaluating competing methods for doing so. The key factor here is the ability to identify records that have a high probability of being fraudulent, and this is what lift measures. Using lift, you can "descend" through the records in order of probability of being fraudulent, knowing at each point how much more likely you are to be getting a fraudulent record than naively selecting at random. The "error rate" measure, by contrast, reveals nothing about the efficiency of identifying fraudulent records.
The vast majority of records are non-fraudulent, and correctly classifying nonfraudulent records drives the overall error rate. One can achieve a very respectably low error rate of 5% just by classifying everything as non-fraudulent, which gets you nowhere.…...

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

Take What Is Yours

...Take What is Yours At the present time I am no longer employed but previously when I worked for a large conglomerate the evaluation system we implemented after we merged all our companies was based on several key areas. The Human Resources Manager and myself put together a system after gathering what was bring used at each division we purchased and felt what was best and most contusive to the review process for the individual and the companies and made one standard form. I was involved because I was in the operations department and was highly involved in all the companies and dealt with every employee and knew their needs and concerns and addressed them as needed. We made sure that each employee was able to voice their opinions, their accomplishments, needs, concerns and what they wanted to see for the growing family of companies that were uniting and what areas could be implemented. First we thought it would be helpful to have the employee and the supervisor each fill out an evaluation report. The employees on themselves, which is why it is so critical to keep copies of their work, email, and milestones to use as examples during there review process. We asked them what types of teamwork they participated in, what initiative it took and how they participated in the team projects and what type of work they did outside of their job scope, if they added to their job description and learned anything more and contributed more knowledge to the position and......

Words: 754 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

What Is Your Mission Statement?

...Your mission statement is not for your marketing purposes. The primary goal is for you and your business to continue with purposeful building one by one blocks until the success. Important part of each business success is the foundation of that business. One of the fundamental elements that built foundation of the businesses is mission statement. In one of the previous posts (What is your mission statement?), I write about the mission statement and mention of the problems when the mission statement doesn’t don’t reflect the reality of the business. That statement will tell you who are your customers and what you make to satisfy them. It will be driving force of your business, that will show you the right path every time when you leave that path. Let’s look 12 different mission statements of one of the most successful companies in the world. #1 Nike Mission Statement To bring inspiration and innovation to every athlete* in the world. *”If you have a body, you are an athlete.” #2 Amazon Mission Statement Our vision is to be earth’s most customer centric company; to build a place where people can come to find and discover anything they might want to buy online. #3 Walt Disney Mission Statement To make people happy. #4 Wal Mart Mission Statement To give ordinary folk the chance to buy the same thing as rich people. #5 Apple Mission Statement Apple is committed to bringing the best personal computing experience to students, educators, creative......

Words: 414 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Goods Spend Analysis in Your Organization

...Individual Exercise Goods Spend Analysis in Your Organization Describe components of a goods spend analysis for your organization. Please feel free to bring any relevant information about your organization to class. There are three components to the exercise that must be handed in: 1. Show the steps you would use to conduct goods spend analysis for your organization. PO Mgmt Dept Fulfillment Buyer Accounting Payable Procurement Manager Procurement Category Buyer CFO Provide Primary spend data Accountably sign Spend analysis Approve Spend Analysis Draft Spend Analysis Verify Primary data Steps to conduct goods spend analysis Internal Goods Users 2. Describe specific key triggers and why you chose them. In general, we conduct goods spend analysis based on company management, procurement management and some other special reasons. Company management purposes: * Cost analysis * Budget, Forecasting and Planning Procurement management purposes: * Periodical summary, e.g. quarterly, monthly, semi-annual, annual * Top suppliers cognation for long-term relationship development * Quarterly major suppliers review of purchasing volume, capability and performance PO amounts and price review under Master agreement or stage prices * Negotiation/bidding preparation, e.g., category volume, suppliers’ history PO amounts, delivery, etc * KPIs as cost saving, purchasing amounts, workloads, etc. Special...

Words: 428 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Discussion Post- What Is Your Phobia

...Upon initially reading the instructions for this post, I thought I was going to have an incredibly hard time writing it, seeing as I do not believe myself to have a phobia. When I hear the word phobia, I think of someone who absolutely cannot handle being in a specific situation, suffering from increased heart rate, hyperventilating, mental/emotional breakdowns, and even passing out as a result of being overwhelmed by the entire situation. I looked up the definition of “phobia”, according to the Merriam-Webster dictionary a phobia is an extremely strong dislike or fear of someone or something. I considered what my fears are and had troubled. I cliff jump and love heights, I don’t like bugs but they don’t scare me, and the dark can creep me out but usually only after a scary movie. Then I realized I am afraid of not making my dreams a reality. I am afraid of failure. I typed in fear of failure and according to a few different websites, including phobialist.com, fear of failure is a real phobia called Atychiphobia. I read that A person afflicted with atychiphobia considers the possibility of failure so intense that they choose not to take the risk. Often this person will subconsciously undermine their own efforts so that they no longer have to continue to try. I was doing this! This is a good assignment for me, because it has forced me to get out of my own way and focus on school. I have had a rough start for the past month or so, but now I am fully dedicating myself to my......

Words: 343 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

What Are Your Three Favorite Foods?

...What are your three favorite foods? There are many types of food in the world and the favorite food each person might choose would be different because they have different taste. For example, my mom likes steak while my dad likes salad. If I would choose 3 favorite foods of mine, those are Kimchi, sandwiches and seasoned rice cakes. First, I consider Kimchi to be one of my favorite foods. When I was in my mom’s belly, my mom ate Kimchi a lot. Thus, I suppose this is why I like Kimchi so much. Actually, Kimchi is spicy and smells stinky, however it gets along with our daily food such as rice, noodle and soup adding refresh taste. Next, another one of my favorite foods is sandwiches. My mom has made different types of sandwiches since I was little by inserting my favorite foods in the sandwiches such as cheese, hams, eggs and potatoes. Especially, I don’t want to eat heavy meal in the morning and I am always busy to preparing for school, eating sandwiches is very convenient since I can eat everything I like together. Lastly, I have come to appreciate the taste of seasoned rice cakes. My nanny often makes seasoned rice cakes for me as a snack. I like the chewing feeling of rice cake, and also I really like sweet and spicy taste. I can also add foods I like such as egg, fishpaste and sweet potatoes. In conclusion, I like Kimchi, sandwiches and seasoned rice cakes. Kimchi is my favorite because it gets along with most of my daily food. Also, I like sandwiches......

Words: 298 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

What Are Your Weaknesses

...should be aware of biases. There really is no best answer the to the “What is your biggest weakness question.” The answer will vary from person to person as we do not all have the same weakness and each answer would vary based on the organization the applicant is interviewing with. Applicants should answer this question by being specific. Simply answering the question by giving a general skillset as a weakness will cause the interviewer to perceive the worst case scenario. An applicant can turn the question from a negative to a positive. Giving a negative question a positive spin will leave the interviewers believing that the applicant is optimistic rather than pessimistic. Another option is for the applicant to discuss a skill that he or she has improved during their most previous position. This shows the interviewer that the applicant is capable of making improvements and continues development. The best recommendation that an interviewer could follow would be to keep an open mind and weigh all the answers to all of the questions with more equality. Why should the answer to one single question determine whether or not an applicant get a job offer? If the answer from the applicant is vague perhaps more probing questions should be asked. When uncertainty arises, especially in an interview situation, nerves are present and it can be difficult to come up with an answer to the question “What is your biggest weakness” on the spot without coming across as a bumbling,......

Words: 1210 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

What Is Your Name in Vietnam

...Information and Cyber-Security Questionnaire 2014: v9.2 2014-2015 STT Information Systems Analysis and Design Business Systems Analysis Systems & Information Systems Copyright © Peter Bednar. 2014 peter.bednar@port.ac.uk STT: Inf. And Cyber-Security Q 2014-15 Page 2/5 Information and Cyber Security Questionnaire All answers in questionnaires are to be kept anonymous. Department (e.g. section): Grade (e.g. category of work): Information and Cyber Security Questionnaire - Part 1 Planning 1. What information assets are critical to your work? 2. What kinds of risks could they be exposed to? 3. What legal and compliance requirements is your work and organization subject to? 4. How could you continue to do your job if your information requirements could not be fulfilled with your IT support? 5. How can you manage risks and threats to your information assets on an ongoing basis? Implementing 6. Have you put in place the right security controls to protect your equipment, information, IT system and external (or outsourced) services? 7. Do you and your co-workers know what your responsibilities related to IS and Cyber Security are? 8. Do you and your co-workers know what good IS and Cyber Security practices are? 9. If there is a IS Security threat or Cyber-attack, or something goes wrong with related to your Information Assets – how will you deal with it and get back to normal practices......

Words: 331 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

What Is Your Risk Tolerance

...WHAT’S YOUR RISK TOLERANCE? Circle the letter that corresponds to your answer 1. Just 60 days after you put money into an investment, its price falls 20%. Assuming none of the fundamentals have changed, what would you do? a. Sell to avoid further worry and try something else b. Do nothing and wait for the investment to come back c. Buy more. it was a good investment before ;now it’s cheap investment , too 2. Now look at the previous question another way. Your investment fell 20% , but it’s part of a portfolios being used to meet investment goals with three different time horizons 2A. What would you do if the goal were five years away? a. Sell b. Do nothing c. Buy more 2B. What would you do if the goal were 15 years away? a. Sell b. Do nothing c. Buy more 2C. What would you do if the goal were 30 years away? a. Sell b. Do nothing c. Buy more 3. The price of your retirement investment jumps 25% a month after you buy it .again, the fundamentals haven’t changed after you finish gloating, what do you do? a. Sell it and lock in your gains b. Stay put and hope for more gain c. Buy more; it could go higher 4 you’re investing for retirement, which is 15years away. Which would you rather do? a. Invest in a money-market fund or guaranteed investment contract, giving up the possibility of major gains, but virtually assuring the safety of your principle b. Invest in a 50-50mix of bond funds and stock funds, in hopes...

Words: 514 - Pages: 3

Premium Essay

To Conform or to Change: What Will Your Verse Be?

...1 Hi 18.212002 B To Conform or To Change: What Will Your Verse Be? When it comes to the subject of death, one may realize that their life is temporary, hence, they try their best to live with the short period of time they have. Although the idea of “living life to the fullest” essentially means living an exceptional life and never wasting any opportunity given to you, many would take this in a different context and use it as an opportunity to do something reckless. Furthermore, people would use the quote carpe diem as a valid excuse to do something irresponsible. Though to some extent it may be acceptable, but the idea of carpe diem does not center on invincibility or invulnerability. It focuses on precisely the opposite –mortality. The fact that we are mortal means the time that we have left is extremely precious and that we should never settle for a life that is less than extraordinary. In the movie Dead Poets Society directed by Peter Weir, carpe diem was one of the main themes the film posses’. The events that happened to the lead characters manifested a distinct tension between how traditions and conformity clashes with innovation and freethinking. By analyzing the small details of each segment in the movie, as well as the characteristics of the lead roles, it enables us to have a deeper insight on why people choose to be part of the mainstream, ......

Words: 1127 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

What Color Is Your Day

...Assignment 2.2 - What Color Is Your Day? Clients will not have the same values, beliefs, and goals that you do regarding health and wellness. To illustrate these differences, assign a color to each day of the week. Take time to consider what color you think best represents each day and be able to justify your thought process. We will share our colors with the class and see where there are similarities and differences. Example: “I think Monday is best represented by the color gray. I assigned this color because Monday is the beginning of the school week and so it is rather gloomy because I still have the whole week ahead of me.” |Day |What color represents the day? |Why did you select that color? | |Monday | |I think my Monday is best represented by the color orange. Most people do not like | | | |Mondays because it’s just the beginning of the week and their fun weekend has ended, | | |Orange |however, I use this as an opportunity to motivate my clients with my enthusiasm and | | | |spunk. | |Tuesday | |I think my Tuesday is best represented by pink because pink stands......

Words: 397 - Pages: 2

Premium Essay

Solver, Vlookup & What-If Analysis

...linear systems, better solved by specific solvers. * Linear and non-linear optimisation problems * Systems of ordinary differential equations * Systems of differential algebraic equations * Logic/satisfiability problems * Constraint satisfaction problems * Shortest path problems * Minimum spanning tree problems * Search algorithms Excel Solver, introduced by Microsoft in 1991, is a powerful optimization application used in finance, production, distribution, purchasing and scheduling. It is part of the data analysis tools used for what-if analysis--a process of identifying changes in a cell by adjusting related cells. If your boss has asked you to find ways to increase company's profits by determining the best price, changing the product mix, identifying your company's inventory capacity, you can do this either by using pen and paper with hours of computations or use Excel Solver and do an analysis in minutes. The General Problem Solver (GPS) is a particular computer program created in 1957 by Herbert Simon, J.C. Shaw, and Allen Newell intended to work as a universal problem solver, that theoretically can be used to solve every possible problem that can be formalized in a symbolic system, given the right input configuration. It was the first computer program which separated its knowledge of problems (in the form of domain rules) from its strategy of how to solve problems (as a general search engine). General solvers typically use......

Words: 3603 - Pages: 15

Premium Essay

What Is Your Plan

...What areas do you plan to work on, and why? The areas I plan to work on are the following: writing, library skills, strategic reading, critical thinking and maintaining academic progress. These are the areas in which I feel I need the most improvement because I have been in the IT field for over 30 years. Since I have been in the IT field so long, my writing and research is in a technical format, which has caused me to lose the skills listed above. In this technological environment, communication tends to be short and to the point, referred to as “techie,” there is very limited elaboration done. My technical writing is far away from the APA style. I am at the point in my career that I need to speak and write in both styles, Technical and APA to advance my career. The following are a few of the requirements for me to achieve a promotion: • Excellent troubleshooting and problem-solving skills, • Excellent verbal and written communication skills. • Effective communicator, presenter, and negotiator. • Ability to work closely with customers and suppliers, defining expectations and mutual responsibilities. I am confident that if I am successful with my plan I will achieve my goals. What resource or resources do you plan to use and how will you use the resources? Be specific: Describe why you think a particular resource will be useful, provide an example of how and when you plan to use it, and discuss how you will apply what you gain from it to your academic work. I plan......

Words: 391 - Pages: 2

Free Essay

What Is Your Philosophy?

...What is Your Philosophy? Christopher Robinson PHL/215 December 12, 2011 Kathleen Ramsey What is Your Philosophy? How does one define his or her personal philosophy? A variety of personal, social, political, and economic circumstances help molds one’s philosophy. Using myself, as an example, I will explain how each of these areas has played some part in the molding of my personal philosophical views. The formation of my views began when I was a young child at around six or seven years old. I didn’t realize at the time of course. Only through growing up and looking back can one realize such things. According to the Performance Aid, I find myself falling into two categories of philosophy: Social and Post-Colonial. The post-colonial aspect is very easy for me to explain. One of the questions posed by post-colonial Phil osiers is “Can oral history and tradition be preserved for future generations? I believe that it can. This can only happen if we as a capitalistic society stop being so self-involved with money and possessions. We have to realize that history repeats itself in one way or another. Each generation needs to stop and take the time to learn from parents, grandparents, and great grandparents about their lives. The lives of those before you help shaped the ways and methods of thinking for the next. This could be passing along family history or traditions. I have often regretted not hearing more of my father’s stories of his time in the military. He was in,......

Words: 823 - Pages: 4

Premium Essay

What Is Your Philosophy?

...What is your philosophy? First let us define and understand what philosophy means. Philosophy is a basic concept examined through using specific spheres of knowledge. The concepts as examined are reality, existence, truth, freedom, and causality. Philosophy is broken down into many areas of interest. We will explore them with defining each, providing a description for approaches to philosophical questions as well as explaining how philosophy and culture interaction in terms of development and thought. Also I will describe and explain my philosophical area of interest as well as how or why cultural factors influenced my choice. In knowing this there are many areas of philosophy, here are the major areas: a) Epistemology: Studying of knowledge and justified beliefs. This is how to understand concepts of justification or what makes justified beliefs justified. There are several approaches to forming or understanding the meaning. It has to be broken down in conditions. Truth what is reasonable or rational in your own point of view, belief is possession of evidence, and justification is the high objective probability of truth that if determined to be true, it is not because of any luck. b) Metaphysics: Is studying or examine the nature of reality. Science gives insight to the unanswered questions. However, when seeking the reality it is the transformation of natural philosophy derived through observation and experiment. c) Moral: One’s behavior in relations......

Words: 1008 - Pages: 5

Premium Essay

What Are Your Views on Assisted Suicide

...What are your views on assisted suicide? According to our text, Active euthanasia refers to positive steps taken to bring about someone else’s death, by administering a lethal injection or by some other means. Active euthanasia is morally wrong and I strongly object to it. For Christians, life is viewed to be sacred and the bible teaches, “Thou shall not kill.” Assisting someone else commit suicide is an act of killing the person, either by administering a lethal injection or by some other means. The bible teaches that killing another person is sin. With this basic understanding, Active euthanasia remains morally wrong in my opinion. Many argue that if a person so chooses to end his or her life or have someone else assist them in doing so, then it is morally permissible as long as no harm is done to others. Advocates of this argument fail to see the emotional stress people undergo in deciding to assist others commit suicide. This argument aims at elevating the individual right of the hopeless person rather than focusing on the damage Active euthanasia can cause the individuals assisting others. The family of the person requesting assisted suicide feels the grief of suicide more. As required by the laws of many states, family members are required to give consent to such request. Losing a love one through natural death is painful, losing a love one through assisted suicide compounds that pain as family members are left with the emotional turmoil from the......

Words: 403 - Pages: 2